ICPAC
Early Warning for Droughts and Floods in East Africa
© UNOCHA
ABOUT
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is spearheading a critical initiative to enhance hazard modeling, impact estimation, climate storylines for drought and flood disasters in Eastern Africa (E4DRR). In collaboration with NORCAP, this project leverages ensemble prediction systems to create counterfactual, physically consistent narratives of real events, offering a new lens through which to view disaster risk and preparedness. By generating composite datasets, this initiative aims to provide actionable insights and enhance impact-based forecasting, anticipatory action, and loss-damage assessment across the region.
East Africa
$500,000
24 months
OBJECTIVES
DEVELOP
Event-based climate storylines to impart comprehensive risk knowledge and awareness, employing ensemble prediction systems and hazard modeling.
EXPLORE
The application of storylines in impact-based forecasting utilizes ensemble prediction systems to inform disaster risk management and anticipatory action strategies.
EMPOWER
Ecosystem partners with risk data, expertise, and capacity building for disaster preparedness and anticipatory action across East Africa.
IMPACT AT SCALE
With CRAF'd support, ICPAC's project is poised to enhance disaster risk management in Eastern Africa by integrating advanced hazard modeling, impact estimation, and climate storylines into the East Africa Hazard Watch Portal. This approach aims to fill the critical data gaps for localized, actionable information. It seeks to elevate disaster risk reduction practices by offering a detailed understanding of potential impacts and facilitating the evaluation of alternative scenarios for risk assessment and decision-making. The project underscores a significant leap towards informed, strategic actions responding to climate change, conflict, and displacement challenges, thereby contributing to a more resilient and prepared region.
6,500
Users of flood and drought insights for anticipatory action and disaster risk reduction every year.
$10M
Crisis aid facilitated that arrives earlier, faster, and more targeted and dignified way.
200M
People in fragile and crisis-affected settings benefit from earlier, faster, more targeted, and dignified assistance.
UPDATES
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PRESS RELEASE
ICPAC launched its CRAF’d-supported E4DRR project. It will contribute to enhanced hazard modeling, impact estimation, and climate storylines that help partners to address drought and flood risks in East Africa.
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CLIMATE RESILIENCE
ICPAC is a cornerstone for data-driven climate services in Eastern Africa. The CRAF’d- supported E4DRR project will feed into the East Africa Hazard Watch Portal and transform climate resilience in the region.
